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ABAG Projections - 2003January 30, 2003 Paul Fassinger Research Director, Projections 2003 Association of Bay Area Governments P.O. Box 2050 Oakland, CA 94604-2050 VIA CERTIFIED MAIL Re: City of Campbell Review Comments on the draft Projections 2003 Population and Employment Forecasts Dear Mr. Fassinger: The City of Campbell has reviewed the draft Projections 2003 that are based on a new set of long-term assumptions based from the Smart Growth Policies adopted by the ABAG Executive Board in 2002. The forecasts for Campbell show a minor reduction in the population and a more notable reduction in the number of jobs through the year 2030. The City is concerned with the projected decline in jobs and with sharp increases in the population projected for some five-year periods. These concerns are discussed below in more detail. Population Forecasts: The City is supportive of the draft Projections 2003 population forecasts that are lower than those of Projections 2002, except for the year 2005. However, the City is concerned about the substantial increases projected for the five-year periods between 2015-2020 and 2025-2030, as shown in the Table 1 and Figure 1. The City would like to be informed of the assumptions that were used to project the higher growth during these time periods. The City does not have any reason to believe that growth would be more substantial during these periods and not in others. Table 1: Population Forecasts from ABAG Projections 2003 Projections 2003' 5-year Increase 2005 39;200 2010 39,800 600 2015 40,200 400 2020 41,000 800 2025 41,400 400 2030 42,300 900 1. Excludes Sphere of Influence 7o North First Street Campbell, California 95008-1 4 3 6 T'EL 408.866.2140 Fnx 408.871.5140 Too 408.866.2790 City of Campbell Review Comments on the draft Projections 2003 Population and Employment Forecasts January 30.2003 Page 2 of 3 Figure 1: Campbell Population Forecasts 43,000 42,300 42,000 41,000 41,400 41,000 40,200 40,000 39 800 39,200 0 39,000 37,957 38,138 38,000 fl„ 37,000 a° 36,000 3 os8 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Employment Forecasts: The City is significantly concerned about the projected loss of jobs in the City. Although currently the economy is not in the best state, it will turn around and rebound within the next 27 years. While Projections 2002 forecasted 31,980 jobs in 2025, the Projections 2003 forecast decreases by 2,750 jobs to only 29,230 jobs in 2025. This is a very significant decrease that cannot be due solely to slower economic growth than previously projected. Given that Campbell has three VTA light rail stations under construction, it would seem likely that the City would be targeted for more job growth under the Smart Growth policy changes than other communities without transit stations or compact growth patterns. Table 2: Job Forecasts from ABAG Projections 2002 and 2003 Projections 2002 Projections 2003 Difference 2000 2005 27,190 26,380 (810) 2010 27,900 27,690 (210) 2015 29,030 28,710 (320) 2020 30,700. 29,040 (1,660) 2025 31,980 29,230 (2,750) 2030 N/A 29.600 City of Campbell Review Comments on the draft Projections 2003 Population and Employment Forecasts January 30. 2003 Pa~_of 3 Figure 2: Campbell Job Forecasts, Projections 2002 and Projections 2003 33,000 32,000 31,000 0 30,000 ..~i t Projections 29,000 2002 a 28,000 ~-Projections 2003 27,000 ~r 26,000 25,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year The Campbell General Plan anticipates a limited amount of development on underutilized sites. The Plan projects the development of 937,781 square feet square feet of non-residential building floor area over a 20-year planning period (2000 to 2020), as shown in the following table. Table 3: Projected Net New Building Floor Area at Buildout of General Plan (2020) Land Use Total Square Footage Auto-related (115,223) Retail/ Restaurant/ Hotel 181,418 Industrial (593,400) Prof. Office 1,499,102 Public/Semi-Public (34,116) Total Square Footage 937,781 The increase of 937,781 square feet is projected to result in an increase in 3,936 jobs in the City between 2000 and 2020. Under Projections 2003 Campbell's job growth during this twenty-year period is only 2,540 jobs, which is significantly lower than the General Plan projections. The City requests a comprehensive and detailed written response to the two major issues raised in this letter. Please contact me or Darcy Smith, the planner who reviewed the draft Projections 2003, at (408) 866-2140 if you have any questions or concerns related to these review comments. Sincerely, Sharon Fierro Community Development Director Cc: Bernie Strojny, City Manager Hing Wong, ABAG of ' SAM,, ~~~ e~ u r 0 0 a s~ `~ '°R~~~•~' City of Campbell -- Community Development Department 70 N. First Street. Campbell. CA 95008 MEMORANDUM To: Sharon Fierro, Community Development Director Date: January 8, 2003 From: Darcy Smith, Planner II Subject: Review of Draft Projections 2003: A Smart Growth Forecast The draft Projections 2003 were provided to the City of Campbell for review and comment on December 20, 2002 from ABAG. These Projections are based on a new set of long-term assumptions based from the Smart Growth Policies adopted by the ABAG Executive Board in 2002. These new policies stemmed from the Smart Growth Strategy Regional Livability Footprint Project. This Project included the development of a preferred land use pattern "Vision" to minimize sprawl, provide adequate and affordable housing, improve mobility, protect environmental quality, and preserve open space. The Vision will inform how the Bay Area can grow smarter and become more sustainable over the next 20-25 years, and will help frame other Project goals to identify and secure regulatory changes and fiscal incentives that promote smart growth, and to develop policy-based Projections. The vision anticipates that future higher density housing will be built near transit stations and there will be a more perfect jobs/employed residents balance. The forecasts for population, households, jobs, employed residents, and the jobs/ employed residents balance are presented below for the 2005-2030 time frame of draft Projections 2003. The forecasts show a minor reduction in the population and a more notable reduction in the number of jobs. Population: Population projections for Projections 2003 (P2003) are lower than those of Projections 2002 (P2002) except in 2005. The Campbell General Plan anticipates a limited amount of development on underutilized sites. The Plan projects the development of approximately 1,600 new housing units and less than a million square feet of non-residential building floor area over a 20-year planning period (2000 to 2020). The increase of 1,600 housing units at buildout of the General Plan in 2020 will result in a population of approximately 41,946 persons. This projection is nearly 1,000 persons more than the P2003 forecast of 41,000 persons in 2020. Population Forecasts from ABAG Proiections Projections 2002 Projections 2003 Difference 2005 39,100 39,200 100 2010 40,000 39,800 (200) 2015 40,700 40,200 (500) 2020 41,200 41,000 (200) 2025 41,700 41,400 (300) 2030 42,300 Figure 1: Campbell Population Forecasts 43.000 ,...,._,...,,,,,..,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,.,,,.,.,,-- 42,000 ~ c 41,000 Projections ao,ooo 2002 a a 3s,ooo ~-Projections 2003 38,000 37,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Households: The number of households forecasted in P2003 is similar to the P2002 figures for years 2005 and 2010. In years 2020 and 2025 the number of households forecasted by P2003 is slightly higher than the number of households forecasted by P2002. However, the population forecasts for P2003 are still lower than those of P2002 because the future number of persons per household is anticipated to be lower due to assumptions that higher density housing built in the City in the future will be smaller units than typical low-density residences. Household Forecasts from ABAG Proiections Projections 2002 Projections 2003 Difference 2005 16,220 16,220 0 2010 16,480 16,480 0 2015 16,820 16,750 (70) 2020 17,080 17,170 90 2025 17,330 17,380 50 2030 17,880 Figure 2: Campbell Household Forecasts 18.500 ._,,,_..,,..,,,,----- 18,000 ~ 17,500 W 17,000 ~-Projections 2002 a 16,500 a -^-Projections 1 s,ooo 2003 15,500 15,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Jobs: Employment estimates for P2003 are reduced from the P2002 figures not just due to the new Smart Growth policies but also because of slower economic growth than previously forecasted. There is a notable difference between the number of jobs forecasted for the years 2005, 2020 and 2025. While job growth is forecasted to be steady between 2005 and 2015, it levels off significantly between 2015 and 2030. The General Plan projected increase of 937,781 square feet of non-residential building floor area is anticipated to result in an increase of 3,936 jobs from 2000 to 2020. This projection is greater than the ABAG P2003 forecas~ of the addition of 2,540 jobs between the same time frame but less than the previous P2002 forecast of 4,200 jobs. Job Forecasts from ABAG Proiections Projections 2002 Projections 2003 Difference 2005 27,190 26,380 (810) 2010 27,900 27,690 (210) 2015 29,030 28,710 (320) 2020 30,700 29,040 (1,660) 2025 31,980 29,230 (2,750) 2030 29,600 Figure 3: Campbell Job Forecasts 33,000 --- 32,000 ~ 31,000 ° 30,000 ~-Projections 29,000 -~ 2002 a° 28,000 -~- Projections 27,000 2003 2s,ooo ~ 25,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Employed Residents: The P2003 forecasts for employed residents are very similar to those of P2002. Employed Residents Forecasts from ABAG Proiections Projections 2002 Projections 2003 Difference 2005 24,602 24,680 78 2010 25,391 25,284 (107) 2015 25,892 25,724 (168) 2020 26,389 26,393 4 2025 26,886 26,908 21 2030 27,697 Figure 4: Campbell Employed Residents Forecasts 28,000 - ^ 27,500 c 27,000 -~ Projections 26,500 2002 o -~-Projections a 2s,ooo 2003 25,500 25,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Jobs/ Employed Residents Ba~ance: The ratio of jobs to employed residents for Campbell and its Sphere of Influence is forecasted to increase from a ratio of 1.04 in 2005 to a maximum of 1.09 in 2015 and then decline back to its original ratio of 1.04 in 2030. These figures are interesting in that the new Smart Growth Policy assumptions are intended to generate a more perfect jobs/employed residents ratio but this is not the case. ABAG includes the jobs and employed residents in the City's Sphere of Influence in its calculations; however, it was under the erroneous assumption that there were no jobs in the SOI; however, there are actually six parcels in the SOI developed with office buildings totalling 60,568 square feet. Jobs/Employed Residents Ratio Forecasts from ABAG Proiections Campbell Campbell & SOI 2005 1.07 1.04 2010 1.10 1.07 2015 1.12 1.09 2020 1.10 1.07 2025 1.09 1.06 2030 1.07 1.04 Figure 5: Jobs/ Employed Residents 1.14 1.12 1.10 ~~-Campbell & SOI Jobs/Employed ° 1.08 Residents Ratio ~ 1.08 --~-Campbell 1.04 Jobs/Employed Residents Ratio 1.02 1.00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year Conclusion: The ABAG draft Projections 2003 are more beneficial to Campbell in that the forecasted increases in the City's population and number of jobs are less than the forecasted increases in the current Projections 2002. This is somewhat unexpected in that the new Smart Growth policies call for higher density housing and employment centers near transit stations which could have resulted in a higher forecasted population and jobs. However, the reduced forecasts would result in less pressure on Campbell to comply with growth mandates such as the regional housing need allocation.