ABAG Projections - 2002October 12, 2001
Paul Fassinger
Research Director, Projections 2002
Association of Bay Area Governments
P.O. Box 2050
Oakland, CA 94604-2050
VIA CERTIFIED MAIL
Re: City of Campbell Review Comments on the ABAG Preliminary Projections 2002 Population
and Employment Forecasts
Deaz Mr. Fassinger:
The City of Campbell has significant objections to the preliminary population and employment forecasts
of ABAG's Projections 2002. Although you state in your letter that ABAG tries to follow as closely as
possible the constraints of local development policies in the short term, you have not taken into
consideration the constraints that face our built-out City nor the development policies of our General Plan
Update that is scheduled for adoption in November 2001. The information included in this letter
demonstrates:
• The significant errors in previous Projections documents with respect to Campbell projections;
• Inconsistency with ABAG Regional Housing Needs Allocation for Campbell; and,
• Inconsistency with Campbell's General Plan Population and Employment Buildout
Projections.
Campbell is less than six square miles in size and is bounded on the north, west and east by the Cities of
San Jose, Saratoga, and on the south by the town of Los Gatos. The City is built-out with the exception of
a few vacant parcels that currently have development projects in the permit approval process. The City
has no opportunities to gain additional land by annexation nor does the City have any large parcels of land
available for redevelopment. The City recognizes that ABAG's responsibility is to look at the sum of all
the local plans and policies, as well as local, regional, and national economic and demographic trends, and
to develop a set of forecasts; however, the City of Campbell's setting has not been adequately analyzed
for Projections 2002.
Errors in Previous Projections
Historically, Campbell's population growth has fallen extremely short of the ABAG Projections.
ABAG's Projections 2000 forecasted that the City's population would increase 12 percent from 36,088
persons in 1990 to 40,400 in 2000. However, Campbell's population increased by less than six percent to
only 38,138, nearly 2,300 persons less than ABAG's projection. This comparison is show in the Figure 1:
ABAG Projections 2000 Forecasts and Actual Population, 2000
70 North First Street Campbell, California 95008-1436 rep 408.866.2140 Fnx 408.866.8381 'rnn 408.866.2790
City of Campbell Review Comments on ...e ABAG Preliminary Projections 2002 Populatt~a and Employment Forecasts
October 12. 2001 Page 2 ofS
Figure 1: ABAG Projections 2000 Forecasts and Actual Population,
2000
42000
c 40000
v
a
a° 38000
36000
1990
40,400
38,138
. '
. '
36,088 ~ ~ ~
2000
Year
Campbell Housing Units Data, 1990-2000
~~ABAG
Projections ~
2000
• Actual
Population
zooo
The City of Campbell's historical residential growth shows a trend of minor growth that fluctuates lazgely
year-to-year. Campbell has added a total of 404 housing units over the past decade according to the
Department of Finance, with an average of 40 new units per year. The annual number of new housing
units has varied enormously during this time period, ranging from a net loss of 6 units in 1991 to 127 new
units added in 2000.
Table 3: Campbell Population and Housing Units,1990-
2000
Total Total Housing Annual Change in
Year Population Units Housing Units
1990 36,088 15,882
1991 36,340 15,876 -6
1992 36,543 15,882 6
1993 37,015 15,889 7
1994 37,406 15,890 1
1995 37,957 15,936 46
1996 38,465 15,982 46
1997 39,355 16,088 106
1998 39,636 16,111 23
1999 39,871 16,159 48
2000' 38,138 16,286 127
1990-2000 404
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, City/County
Population and Housing Estimates, 1991-1999, with 1990 census counts
and 2000 Census.
Ciry of Campbell Review Comments on ..e ABAG Preliminary Projections 2002 Popula~.,,n and Employment Forecasts
October 12. 2001 Page 3 ofS
Inconsistency with ABAG Regional Housing Needs Allocation for Campbell
ABAG projects that the City's population will rise significantly over the next 5 years to 40,500 - an
increase of nearly 2,400 persons from the 2000 population. This projection is not consistent with the
ABAG Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA). Campbell's "fair share" of the regional housing
need is 777 residential units for the period between January 1, 1999 and June 30, 2006 (a seven and a half
year planning period). Between January 1, 1999 and June 30, 2001, a total of 212 new residential units
were developed in the City. This leaves a total of 565 units to be developed in the remaining five-year
period, or 113 new units annually. This development would result in a population of 39,383 in 2005,
which is a population increase of only 1,245 persons from 2000. The City's population estimate is
consistent with the ABAG RHNA, whereas the ABAG Projections 2002 is not consistent, as shown in
Figure 2: ABAG RHNA Population Estimate Comparison to ABAG Preliminary Projections 2002
Camabell Projected Population Under Housing Element, 2005
7/1/2001 New Units by Persons Per Population Population
Population 20052 Household3 Increase 2005
38,441 396 2.38 942 39,383
1. Based on 2000 popularion 38,138 persons, adjusted by 303 persons (((212/2.5)*1.5 years)
2.38 pph).
2. 3.5 years * 113 new housing units/year
3. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
Figure 2: ABAG Preliminary Projections 2002 in
Comparison to Population Estimate Based on Campbell's
RHNA
41000
40500
40000
39500
39000
38500
38000
• 'ABAG Preliminary
Projections 2002
-~-Population
Estimate Based on
RHNA
40,500
2000 2005
City of Campbell Review Comments on . ., ABAG Preliminary Projections 2002 Populat~,,.i and Employment Forecasts
October 12. 2001 Page 4 otS
Inconsistency with Campbell's General Plan Population and Employment Buildout Projections
The Campbell General Plan anticipates a limited amount of development on underutilized sites. The Plan
projects the development of approximately 1,600 new housing units and less than a million square feet of
non-residential building floor area over a 20-year planning period (2000 to 2020), as shown in the
following table.
Projected Net New Building Floor Area at Buildout of
General Plan (20201
Land Use Total Square Footage
Auto-related (115,223)
RetaiU Restaurant/ Hotel 181,418
Industrial (593,400)
Prof. Office 1,499,102
Public/Semi-Public (34,116)
Total Square Footage 937,781
The increase of 937,781 square feet will result in an increase in the number of jobs in the City from
21,564 in 2000 to 25,500 in 2020. This projection is significantly less than the ABAG preliminary
Projections 2002 forecast of 30,700 jobs in 2020. Campbell's estimated number of jobs in 2000 was
nearly 5,000 less than the ABAG Projections of 26,500 jobs in 2000.
Figure 3: ABAG Preliminary Projections 2002 In
Comparison to Employment Projections of Campbell
General Plan
3n.7oo
30,000
28,000
~ 26,000
O
7
24,000
22,000
20,000
29
27,190 27 900
26,500
25,500
~ .~
~ ~
21,564
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
~~ABAG
Preliminary
Projeci3ons ~
• 2Ge~neral Plan
The increase of 1,600 housing units at Buildout of the General Plan in 2020 will result in a population
increase of approximately 3,808 persons to a total of 41,946 persons. This projection is nearly 1,000
persons less than the ABAG preliminary Projections 2002 of 42,900 persons in 2020. As Campbell is
largely developed and no raw land is available on which to build housing, the new housing will take the
form of mixed-use or small-lot developments.. The addition of 1_,600 housing units reflects the maximum
City of Campbell Review Comments or ; ABAG Preliminary Projections 2002 Populat.,,n and Employment Forecasts
October 12. 1001 Page S of
amount of units possible under the General Plan land use designations. The actual amount of housing
developed will be largely influenced by market factors beyond the City's control.
A comparison of the population projections of the City's General Plan and the ABAG preliminary
Projections 2002 is shown in Figure 4.
Figure 3: ABAG Preliminary Projections 2002 In
Comparison to Population Projections of Campbell
General Plan
43,000
42,000
C
~.~~, 41,000
•, ~ 40,000
'a
39,000
38,000
Conclusion
Preliminary
Projectlons
2002
• General Pian
The City requests a comprehensive and detailed written response to these three major issues raised in this
letter and requests a detailed summary of the methodology used to generate the preliminary Projections
2002 projections for the City of Campbell. The City requests the review of the Local Policy Survey Data
for Projections because we have not been contacted for this information in the past two years and now
have updated information that will definitely change the Projections. We have enclosed an updated
inventory of parcels that can be potentially redeveloped as well as the General Plan Update that contains major
land use policy changes. The General Plan Update is scheduled for adoption on November 6, 2001.
Please contact me if you have any questions or concerns related to these review comments.
Sincerely,
~~~-,
Sharon Fierro
Community Development Director
Cc: Hing Wong, ABAG
Bernie Strojny, City Manager
William Seligmann, ESQ., City Attorney
Enclosure: City of Campbell General Plan Buildout Projections, October 2001
City of Campbell Inventory of Parcels that can be Potentially Redeveloped, October 2001
City of Campbell General Plan Update, Public Hearing Draft Second Printing, Apri12001
a2.9oo
41,94
41,700 ~
40,800 ~
40,500 ~ ~
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year